We remain optimistic for a recovery in healthcare services deal activity in 2026 after the “dust settles” from the just passed One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act. The OBBB Act includes very sizable Medicaid spending reductions. However, in our view, the behavioral health space may prove be relatively insulated. Also, we continue to see elevated interest in the home and alternate site infusion therapy space following our recent attendance of the NICA Conference in late June.

Key Takeaways

• The OBBB Act is expected to reduce Medicaid spending by $1 trillion over the coming decade. The impact of this will likely vary widely by provider type and by state. However, on average, we estimate, it will result in a ~8%-10% of annual Medicaid revenue headwind for many healthcare providers, cumulatively, by 2034. This, in turn, could lead to more consolidation among healthcare providers to better absorb these Medicaid revenue pressures.

• The OBBB Act may also catalyze greater interest in value-based reimbursement models, in our opinion. This, too, may result in mergers and acquisitions. Having sufficient size and scale is critical to success in value-based reimbursement because a provider needs a sufficient number of patient lives to develop the necessary data and evidence to take on performance risk. Also, larger patient populations allow for risk to be better spread out (diversified).

• The Bourne Partners team recently attended the 2025 National Infusion Center Association (NICA) Conference to meet with executives and private equity investors in the home and alternate site infusion therapy space. Notably, there was significant focus at the NICA Conference on opportunities to use information technology. We believe that this is particularly important for infusion providers who are looking to sell their businesses.

In the dynamic consumer health industry, staying ahead of trends is essential for informed decision-making and seizing opportunities. Bourne is active with multiple assignments across consumer health and other coverage areas. Please reach out to us for more information.

For more information on Healthcare Services, reach out to Aaron Olsen or Evan Goldstein.